UK warned – Prepare for record snow and cold

With conditions “set to deteriorate quickly,” the chances of a white winter have picked up for the UK.

“Frequent cold and above-average snow levels will soon hit the UK and Ireland,” warns Long Range weather forecaster James Madden. “It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole.”

“We can expect to be hurled into the full throws (sic) of real winter within weeks.”

“Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland,” says Madden.

“The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with deep widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland.”

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/prepare-for-record-snow-and-cold


24 thoughts on “UK warned – Prepare for record snow and cold”

  1. You know?, everyone is going to get fed up eventually with all this swapping and changing about. First its on, then its off, then its on again, kids will never see snow again then, they will see plenty of the stuff,if it was’nt for Mr Piers Corbyn and, if it depended on the Met all the time and backtrackers like Mr Madden, i would’nt know weather i was coming or going.
    My 70 yr old mother-in-law descended upon us this month, don’t know how long for, she originally was born and bred in Brampton Cumbria, does anyone know Cumbria at all?, last year two elderly people died from hypothermia up that way,(one in their own back garden) she knew one and was familiar with another, it was in the papers. Now, if everyone could have got it together last year maybe, just by a long shot but, maybe, a lot of lives could have been saved, a LOT of disruption could have been avoided, an awful LOT of money could have been saved and, this country as a whole could have coped a lot better with a LOT less surprises.
    I am not asking that independant forcasters whose livlihood depends on their forcast sales, give anything away BUT, would it be too much to ask for them to ‘sneak’ some timely ‘Advice’ to the general public?, as oposed to giving away too much of their forecasts…you know, something like ‘Buy extra salt by such and such a time’, or, ‘buy three to four days worth of milk, put extra money in the gas meter, bring your warm woolies down from the attic, make sure your windows and doors are draught excluded, buy extra coal(God forbid to the warmists lol), put a couple of loaves in the freezer, stock up on soup….’ you get the general picture, unfortunately others don’t….i mean, its not giving a lot away but, it does make people sit up and listen.
    In Yorkshire, a lot of elderly are going to charity shops and buying books cheap to burn as fuel as they’re cheaper than coal!, what a country, what a Government.
    Thank You,
    GrannyG.(Val)

    • Lol, mind you, Last year we were taken so much by surprise, we ran out of salt and grit, this year Mr Madden forecast such diar snow consequences for October that authorities have ordered extra grit and salt early so, by comparison, we should be ‘early’ in supplies and as well as if not limited to, over supplied to ‘compensate’ for the ‘late’ circumstances due to that pesky big fillament which no one expected could disrupt anyones forecast , i am a happy chappy in one respect (cos it gave me more time to build up supplies) and, as a snow lover (winter really helps my asthma and excema)a bit dissapointed that the pesky fillament got in the way and disrupted Mr Corbyns forecast and my comfort zone lol.
      GrannyG.

  2. Hi Granny G/Val and everyone else. Piers Corbyn will be giving a lot of information away on Tuesday 29 November – click here for details: http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=394&c=5

    Note of Caution: Piers forecasts are split into 3 or 4 day periods. Each period carries an estimate of accuracy. I’ve seen 65% to 85% estimates. Plus the notes with each forecast says the timing can be out by up to 2 days either way. But I think he’s going to say that December will PROBABLY be VERY cold and snowy for the UK. This mild spell has been a welcome respite.

    • Hello Nick,
      Thank you for replying to me and the greeting. Yes, i will be watching for that , i like Mr Corbyn and his truthfullness, his ‘give-a-day-or-two-either-way’ is refreshing and his no nonsence forecasts bring a confidence to me when i’m warning others about the weather, especially the elderly and my grown up kids with their kids lol. He knows his stuff very well, i wish i had known of him sooner, my husbands family are eleven siblings, if i had known of Mr Corbyn sooner eight family weddings might not have been ‘washed’ out Lol, still happy events of course despite the weather.
      GrannyG.

      • Interestingly, my husband goes course fishing on some sundays sometimes a saturday, he works night shifts so sunday is allways better. Early this week, he made arrangements to go fishing this sunday with his friend and, instead of listening to me he ‘took the chance’ and went to the tackle shop yesterday, spent £7 on ground bait, £5.20 on two pints of mixed maggot and put an extra £10 of diesel in his tank last night. He could have saved all that by taking my advice to wait and see. Now, im sitting here commenting on this forum, the weather outside is blustery, wet and deffinately cold and my husband has grumbled his way back up the stairs to bed Lol, oh dear oh dear me.
        He too has given up on regular forecasts from the TV lol, maybe now i can convince him to take notice of Mr Corbyn too Lol,
        GrannyG.

  3. Wasn’t there supposed to be a “Siberian freeze” within a fortnight on Nov 3?
    Guess what, it snow in the Scottish Highlands in December.
    It usually does not snow very much in the lower elevations.
    My forecast – NO snow under 500 meters in the UK in the next two weeks. Average to slightly above average temps.
    When any of these clowns has a CONSISTENT forecasting record – quote them.

  4. well I have been following james maddon for a while now and he actually never forecast wide spread snow in october, he said certain parts and scotland and n ireland in britain seen earliest snow in 50 years there are pics on exactaweather.com and robert also put the earliest snow in 50 years on here for us too. check out james’s his record and how many times he has got it right over last few years too, he is better than your own met in britain. so some of you need to get it right before you comment and check what he really said and not the news papers who simply want to sell their stories. have a nice day!

  5. this reminds me to buy extra coal before i get snowed in, i usualy do 50kilo a week but in winter it will be more like 100 >.<

  6. Hi Mikizo

    I’m happy to quote Piers Corbyn because he’s more consistent than anyone else. His forecast for snow during 11th to 14th November only carried a 75% probability rating i.e a 1 in 4 change of being wrong, which it was.

    Contrary to many other forecasters, he forecast October and the first 10 days of November as exceptionally mild – which they were. He forecast it getting colder in the second 10 days of November – which it did not. The truly exceptional filament on the sun probably explains this. No method is perfect, and his forecasts are improving as he refines his methods.

    So don’t lump Pier’s with the other clowns.

    And don’t expect perfectly accurate forecasts at this stage. That’s unrealistic given humanity’s current state of knowledge.

    Points to Note: 1. Pier’s forecasts are the most consistently accurate forecasts available. 2. His long range forecasts are VASTLY more accurate than ANY others. FACT. 3. If he received decent funding his forecasts would be even more accurate – and free! So rather than criticising, why not subscribe to his forecasts to help fund his work. Or donate. Or lobby your politicians, local council, etc. to support his work. 4. His forecasts of exceptional events (Hurricane Irene, Queensland floods, and many others)- if applied properly – could have saved much disruption and many lives.

    So why not spread the word about the best that’s available, not just to help people, but hopefully to increase the funding of Pier’s work so he can get his forecasts even better.

    By the way, if your forecast of “NO snow under 500 meters in the UK in the next two weeks. Average to slightly above average temps.” is wrong, will you come back here to explain why it was wrong and how you are improving your methodology to get more accurate in future? Because Piers does that when he gets it wrong.

    Hi Val! So your husband’s bought 2 pints of mixed maggots. They’d make a nice stir-fry for his lunch!!

    Best wishes (and stay warm!), Nick

    • Lol, Nick!, i can only think about the Hoods Woods videos i have seen where the wife toasts grubs in a fry pan and incorporates them into her bread which is made from scratch and baked in a ‘rocky’ oven. Somehow i dont think our mixed maggot (of mixed colours) is the same. Im laughing my head off here at the mental image of my hubby dearests face as i toss a handful in the wok! Rofl.

      • Pretty colours when he throws up!

        Interesting that we detest insects as food but love seafood. Whereas there are other cultures which love eating insects but are horrified at the thought of eating seafood. Yet insects are rich in fat (important if you’re starving), fat-soluble vitamins, minerals and protein. They can really help supplement a poor diet. Maybe we should learn more about what insects are edible and tasty, and how to cook them. Might save our lives to farm insects in a warm cupboard when the ice age hits.

        Yum yum!

        • Im a pices, i LOVE all seafood, i daresay when push comes to shove, we might just do that, after all, fishing maggots also come in a variety of flavours (false), they use termeric, spices, some kind of strawberry smelling liquid….why not for us too ? Rofl. If the Aborigonal tribes can do it as they move from place to place, i’d say its a done deal.
          Cheers!. Lol.

  7. Piers Corbyn, in late October, forecast an 80% chance of snowy periods in the UK around 1/2 and 14/15 December. Well, the only snow likely on 1/2 December will be on high ground in Scotland. Certainly we will lose the relative warmth that we have been used to this coming week but with a conveyor belt of low pressure systems in place for the next 7-10 days, it all points to a positive NAO where the only chance of snow will be when cold fronts push through the region and even then, mainly on high ground.

    • The story line was, “… in the near future children won’t even know what snow looks like…” or, so they tried to convince us.

  8. what? Piers corbyn forecast record breaking snow and cold for November, I bought his forecast. Yet now he saying there is a delay. JOKE and rip off!

    • Hi David

      I think you’ll find it was James Madden who forecast record breaking snow in November – though he says he was mis-reported. I cannot recall what was on his original blog entry, so maybe he was mis-reported. I’m pretty sure he altered his original blog entry, without pointing out the changes. Apologies if I’m wrong James, but if you did that surely you should have pointed it out rather than just changing it?

      I cannot find any reference to record breaking snow in my copy of Piers November forecast.

      Good video explains why latter half of Piers November forecast so wrong, and why 15 – 45 day ahead December forecast was wrong. Good explanation of change in fundamental atmospheric circulation, and how this change has bigger implications for Europe than for North America. Some detail on what we can expect in December: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=8767

      Best wishes, Nick

  9. Hi everyone

    I have just looked over my copy of Piers November forecast and can find no mention of “record breaking snow and cold” mentioned below. Snow and Cold yes, record breaking no. Hope Piers won’t mind me sharing part of the summary:

    “The first 10 days are generally mild and showery.” CORRECT

    “The second 10 days are generally cool or cold, with fog and wintry showers or snow in parts of Britain.” NOT AS COLD AS HE FORECAST. The fog was a useful warning.

    “The final 10 days are more cold relative to normal, with significant snow and blizzard conditions.” VERY WRONG SO FAR – 2 and a half days to go but it would have to be incredibly cold to make up! I expect it to start getting colder now, but not by that much.

    So not a great forecast overall but still better than most – and given well ahead, rather than the constantly revised Met Office forecasts.

    Most of Piers forecasts are much better than this one which was thrown off course by the truly exceptional filament on the sun.

    NOTHING is perfect. Overall Piers forecasts are still the best long range forecasts out there. And remember the Met Office forecasts are not free – we are all paying for them through taxes and the ridiculous energy tariffs for wind turbines, etc. Because the Met Office support Global warming. So rather than moaning about Piers, how about lobbying against global warming and the extremely poor value of the Met Office?

    Have you signed the petitions to scrap the UK Climate Change Act?

    http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/2035

    http://www.gopetition.com/petition/43914/sign.html

    If we all sign those 2 petitions we might bring about some change.

    Let’s see what Piers has to say tomorrow, and what the weather does.

    Best wishes, Nick

  10. Hi Everyone!

    Latest free update from Piers at http://twitpic.com/7lvmid This explains why his November forecast was off, and why the 0 – 30 day ahead December forecast will be modified, compared to the earlier 15 – 45 day ahead December forecast. As I understand it, his SLAT method applies 2 somewhat different models depending on whether the atmosphere is following a lunar dominated pattern or a stratospheric winds dominated pattern.

    For the past several months (or maybe even years – I’m don’t know the details), the weather had been following the lunar circulation pattern. Piers had been using the lunar circulation model and his forecasts have been pretty good, including the first 10 days of November. Then the weather switched to a stratospheric winds dominated pattern (I’m not clear whether or not this was caused by the exceptional – and massive! – magnetic filament on the sun). This meant Pier’s forecast for late November was way off.

    The December 0 – 30 day ahead forecast will be based on the new circulation dominance pattern so should be much more accurate. Still expect periods of cold and snow in December, but not as extreme as his previous 15 – 45 day ahead forecast suggested, and with milder periods mixed in. These comments are only for the UK and Ireland forecast – I don’t know what he’s saying about the US, mainland Europe, etc.

    Piers states in his more detailed UK & Ireland update to subscribers that his comments in that apply only to December, and do not imply any particular weather for the rest of winter.

    Hopefully Pier’s ongoing research will discover a way to predict the changes between the 2 circulation patterns and make his forecast as accurate when these swings occur as when in a steady state circulation pattern.

    As a subscriber, I’d like to see faster updates the next time this pattern switch occurs. But perhaps it takes a couple of weeks before the switch can be confirmed. After all, it’s probable that short term deviations from the dominant pattern happen all the time.

    I seem to remember some comic saying that religion is man’s attempt to communicate with the weather! It’s certainly a challenging science. Even given these recent inaccuracies, I’ve yet to find better long range forecasts than those from Piers, based on his record over the months and years. If anyone has found a better record of LONG RANGE forecasts, please let us know so we can all benefit.

    Best wishes, Nick

  11. Hi Mikizo

    On November 26 you forecast “NO snow under 500 meters in the UK in the next two weeks. Average to slightly above average temps.”

    There has already been snow below 500 metres and we are only half way though your 2 week period. The data below are from Weather Online archives:

    DATE PLACE HEIGHT (metres) DEPTH OF SNOW
    26 Nov, Kirkwall, 21m, 2cm
    27 Nov, Eskdalemuir, 242m, 1cm
    1 Dec, Eskdalemuir, 242m, 1cm
    2 Dec, Andrewsfield, 87m, 1cm
    2 Dec, Lerwick, 84m, less than 0.5cm
    3 Dec, Andrewsfield, 87m, 1cm
    3 Dec, St Athan, 84m, 1cm
    4 Dec, Lerwick, 84m, “snow remains” I don’t know what that means, but there was obviously snow there
    5 Dec, Eskdalemuir, 242m, 10cm
    5 Dec, Lerwick, 84m, 7 cm
    5 Dec, Sapdeaddam II, 286m, 6cm
    5 Dec, Lough Fea, 227m, 3cm
    5 Dec, Bingley, 267m, 2cm
    5 Dec, Andrewsfield, 87m, 1 cm
    5 Dec, Stornoway, 15m, 1 cm
    5 Dec, Aviemore, 228m, 1cm
    5 Dec, Glasgow Bishopton, 59m, 1cm
    5 Dec, Castlederg, 50m, 1cm
    5 Dec, Skye/Lusa, 18m, 1cm

    The 5 Dec readings were taken at 6.00 am (I’m writing this at about 11.00 am – so 12.00 midday readings taken yet!). Those on 26 Nov to 4 Dec were taken at 12.00 midday.

    So we have had snow below 500 metres in Wales, England, Northern Ireland and Scotland – all 4 countries of the UK.

    With the Met Office issuing severe weather warnings for snow and icy roads in Scotland, Northern Ireland and North East England for 5th and 6th December I think we’ll probably have more snow below 500 metres.

    You also wrote on the 26 Nov (presumably in response to Valerie quoting Piers Corbyn) – “When any of these clowns has a CONSISTENT forecasting record – quote them.”

    Not as easy as you thought is it!

    NOBODY gets it right all the time. The reason so many of us use Piers Corbyn’s forecasts is because they are the only long range forecasts which are USUALLY right. Plus he has a great track record of forecasting unexpected events (the track of hurricane Irene, the flooding in Queensland, etc.) Plus his method of looking at the way activity on the sun and position of the moon interact to affect our weather not only gives a consistently good (but not always 100% right) forecast – it also totally undermines the anthropogenic global warming case by showing a more consistent non-human cause for observed climate change.

    Best wishes, Nick

    • Last time i looked (for information for my pressure canner), Chorley In Lancashire was 439 feetso my bolognese sauce is cooked at 75 mins at 10 pound pressure), Coppul is part of Chorley and thats at 300 feet. Last year our snow/ice lasted the entire november to february. Last night we started off with rain, then hail, then sleet, back to hail again this morning and fully expecting snow again this year!. My asthma and excema have calmed down an awful lot these last few days and, im very happy to trust Piers forcasts no matter what lol, even if they are thrown out of whack for a few days and he has to explain why…even take the time to find out why, he allways explains in ways that can easily be understood. My keywords to describe this extraordinary phenominom in a nice person like Piers is HONNESTY, INTEGRITY, DETERMINATION and HONOUR!, he doesnt just swap and change about or gloss over things, he gets right in there and digs deep so that other people can learn things too, we’re never left by the wayside or lied to. I like that.

  12. There seems to be only dustings of snow in east ireland. Piers has said there was going to be thunder snow what a joke! It will be raining so met eire say’s james madden has got his forecast right! Just hope this nonsense about piers stops he’s just telling people what they wanna hear!!

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