University press release warns that falling solar activity may bring new ice age

University press release warns that falling solar activity may bring new ice age

“There is no strong evidence, that global warming is caused by human activity. – Dr Helen Popova
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This warning of a potential ice age comes from an international group of scientists including Dr Helen Popova of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics and of the Faculty of Physics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University, Professor Simon Shepherd of Bradford University and Dr Sergei Zharkov of Hull University, and Professor V. Zharkova of Northumbria University.
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Diminishing solar activity may bring new Ice Age by 2030

Lomonosov Moscow State University Press Release

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The arrival of intense cold similar to the one that raged during the “Little Ice Age”, which froze the world during the 17th century and in the beginning of the 18th century, is expected in the years 2030—2040. These conclusions were presented by Professor V. Zharkova (Northumbria University) during the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno in Wales by the international group of scientists, which also includes Dr Helen Popova of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics and of the Faculty of Physics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University, Professor Simon Shepherd of Bradford University and Dr Sergei Zharkov of Hull University.

The above image of the Sun was taken by NASA Solar Dynamics Observations mission on 15 July 2015. 

It is known that the Sun has its own magnetic field, the amplitude and spatial configuration of which vary with time. The formation and decay of strong magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere results in the changes of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, of the intensity of plasma flows coming from the Sun, and the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface. The study of changes in the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface has a cyclic structure vary in every 11 years that is also imposed on the Earth environment as the analysis of carbon-14, beryllium-10 and other isotopes in glaciers and in the trees showed.

There are several cycles with different periods and properties, while the 11-year cycle, the 90-year cycle are the best known of them. The 11-year cycle appears as a cyclical reduction in stains on the surface of the Sun every 11 years. Its 90-year variation is associated with periodic reduction in the number of spots in the 11-year cycle in the 50-25%. In 17th century, though, there was a prolonged reduction in solar activity called the Maunder minimum, which lasted roughly from 1645 to 1700. During this period, there were only about 50 sunspots instead of the usual 40-50 thousand sunspots. Analysis of solar radiation showed that its maxima and minima almost coincide with the maxima and minima in the number of spots.

Frozen_Thames
In this 1677 painting by Abraham Hondius, “The Frozen Thames, looking Eastwards towards Old London Bridge,” people are shown enjoying themselves on the ice. In the 17th century there was a prolonged reduction in solar activity called the Maunder minimum, which lasted roughly from 1645 to 1700. During this period, there were only about 50 sunspots recorded instead of the usual 40-50 thousand. Image credit: Museum of London.

In the current study published in 3 peer-reviewed papers the researchers analysed a total background magnetic field from full disk magnetograms for three cycles of solar activity (21-23) by applying the so-called “principal component analysis”, which allows to reduce the data dimensionality and noise and to identify waves with the largest contribution to the observational data. This method can be compared with the decomposition of white light on the rainbow prism detecting the waves of different frequencies. As a result, the researchers developed a new method of analysis, which helped to uncover that the magnetic waves in the Sun are generated in pairs, with the main pair covering 40% of variance of the data (Zharkova et al, 2012, MNRAS). The principal component pair is responsible for the variations of a dipole field of the Sun, which is changing its polarity from pole to pole during 11-year solar activity.

The magnetic waves travel from the opposite hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere (odd cycles) or to Southern Hemisphere (even cycles), with the phase shift between the waves increasing with a cycle number. The waves interacts with each other in the hemisphere where they have maximum (Northern for odd cycles and Southern for even ones). These two components are assumed to originate in two different layers in the solar interior (inner and outer) with close, but not equal, frequencies and a variable phase shift (Popova et al, 2013, AnnGeo).

The scientists managed to derive the analytical formula, describing the evolution of these two waves and calculated the summary curve which was linked to the variations of sunspot numbers, the original proxy of solar activity, if one used the modulus of the summary curve (Shepherd et al, 2014, ApJ). By using this formula the scientists made first the prediction of magnetic activity in the cycle 24, which gave 97% accuracy in comparison with the principal components derived from the observations.

Inspired by this success, the authors extended the prediction of these two magnetic waves to the next two cycle 25 and 26 and discovered that the waves become fully separated into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26 and thus have little chance of interacting and producing sunspot numbers. This will lead to a sharp decline in solar activity in years 2030—2040 comparable with the conditions existed previously during the Maunder minimum in the XVII century when there were only about 50-70 sunspots observed instead of the usual 40-50 thousand expected.

The new reduction of the solar activity will lead to reduction of the solar irradiance by 3W/m2 according to Lean (1997). This resulted in significant cooling of Earth and very severe winters and cold summers. “Several studies have shown that the Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest phase of global cooling, which was called “the Little Ice Age”. During this period there were very cold winters in Europe and North America. In the days of the Maunder minimum the water in the river Thames and the Danube River froze, the Moscow River was covered by ice every six months, snow lay on some plains year round and Greenland was covered by glaciers” – says Dr Helen Popova, who developed a unique physical-mathematical model of the evolution of the magnetic activity of the Sun and used it to gain the patterns of occurrence of global minima of solar activity and gave them a physical interpretation.

If the similar reduction will be observed during the upcoming Maunder minimum this can lead to the similar cooling of the Earth atmosphere. According to Dr Helen Popova, if the existing theories about the impact of solar activity on the climate are true, then this minimum will lead to a significant cooling, similar to the one occurred during the Maunder minimum.

However, only the time will show soon enough (within the next 5-15 years) if this will happen.

Dr. Helen Popova of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics and of the Faculty of Physics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University. Image credit: Lomonosov Moscow State University.
Dr. Helen Popova of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics and of the Faculty of Physics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University. Image credit: Lomonosov Moscow State University.

“Given that our future minimum will last for at least three solar cycles, which is about 30 years, it is possible, that the lowering of the temperature will not be as deep as during the Maunder minimum. But we will have to examine it in detail. We keep in touch with climatologists from different countries. We plan to work in this direction”, Dr Helen Popova said.

The notion that solar activity affects the climate, appeared long ago. It is known, for example, that a change in the total quantity of the electromagnetic radiation by only 1% can result in a noticeable change in the temperature distribution and air flow all over the Earth. Ultraviolet rays cause photochemical effect, which leads to the formation of ozone at the altitude of 30-40 km. The flow of ultraviolet rays increases sharply during chromospheric flares in the Sun. Ozone, which absorbs the Sun’s rays well enough, is being heated and it affects the air currents in the lower layers of the atmosphere and, consequently, the weather. Powerful emission of corpuscles, which can reach the Earth’s surface, arise periodically during the high solar activity. They can move in complex trajectories, causing aurorae, geomagnetic storms and disturbances of radio communication.

By increasing the flow of particles in the lower atmospheric layers air flows of meridional direction enhance: warm currents from the south with even greater energy rush in the high latitudes and cold currents, carrying arctic air, penetrate deeper into the south. In addition, the solar activity affects the intensity of fluxes of galactic cosmic rays. The minimum activity streams become more intense, which also affects the chemical processes in the Earth’s atmosphere

The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. The increase in the volcanic activity comes after the Ice Age and it leads to the greenhouse gas emissions. The magnetic field of the Sun grows, what means that the flux of cosmic rays decreases, increasing the number of clouds and leading to the warming again. Next comes the reverse process, where the magnetic field of the Sun decreases, the intensity of cosmic ray rises, reducing the clouds and making the atmosphere cool again. This process comes with some delay.

Dr Helen Popova responds cautiously, while speaking about the human influence on climate.

“There is no strong evidence, that global warming is caused by human activity. The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. People first appeared on the Earth about 60 thousand years ago. However, even if human activities influence the climate, we can say, that the Sun with the new minimum gives humanity more time or a second chance to reduce their industrial emissions and to prepare, when the Sun will return to normal activity”, Dr Helen Popova summarised.

http://astronomynow.com/2015/07/17/diminishing-solar-activity-may-bring-new-ice-age-by-2030/

Thanks to Martin Seibert for this link

 


45 thoughts on “University press release warns that falling solar activity may bring new ice age

  1. The United States government is for some odd reason aggressively is wanting to start another cold war with Russia.
    With that anything coming from Russia even in the world of science will go the way of the trashcan. Our elected officials only understand one thing and thats money that somehow falls into their pockets.

    • yup
      america does it is gotta be state of the art “exceptional science”
      anyone else- Russia especially
      its labelled as bunkum and agitprop.
      and the times Russias been WAY ahead of the game is not to be laughed at
      Phage therapies for eg after some 70 yrs of sound knowledge and refining of it -the west dismissed it
      only now..that some went n learnt n then took it back is a very few smarter cookies admitting n using it. of course they claim its their idea mostly..and theyve also done the usual re patenting for huge profits.
      communism/socialism maynt be perfect…but rank capitalism as USA and the current EU are showing is also NOT good for the 1%
      the issue of AB resistant bugs would be far less if Phages had been used not ridiculed..

    • Err, its Russia wanting its empire back that escaped when the soviets collapsed. Russia IS fighting a proxy war to reabsorb areas around the Black Sea and possibly the Baltic where ex Russian military form enclaves around Military areas much as the Romans did in their Empire.
      So much so that a Putin supplied Air to Air missile system was shipped from Russia into Ukraine and shot down a civilian airliner at nearly its maximum altitude. Putin is miscalculating again.
      The Russians know just how bad the climate will become during the Solar Minimum, they need the land to relocate part of their population

  2. CLIMATIC THRESHOLDS -needs to be brought out and is not being addressed. The question is will any climatic thresholds be reached? Answer is unknown at present.

    CLIMATIC THRESHOLDS – which AGW apparently does not embrace, because the forecast they have put forth through their useless models have not only predicted a warming trend from now to 2100 but they have predicted it to be gradual, and steady. This is not how the climate changes. Rather when the climate changes, Ice Core data CLEARLY shows it is in a step fashion not gradual. In other words the climate does not transition into another climate regime in a gradual fashion but in a step fashion.

    The upshot of all of this is what I say below which is the essence of how the climate changes which does not seem to be comprehended by mainstream climatologist which is par for the course.

    My statement below is most important.

    Climatic Thresholds are always present in the climate system and slight differences in the degree of magnitude change /duration of time in the item or items causing the climate forcing could make the difference between a climatic threshold in the climate system being brought about or not ,which in turn will make all the difference in the world of the x climate out come.

    This is why AGW enthusiast, the climate changes in a STEP fashion not gradually.

    As I have said we have a convergence of climatic items which are phasing together which eventually are going to bring the climate into a cooler regime in a step like down turn (when /if thresholds are reached ) superimposed likely upon a jig/saw up and down temperature trend in the meantime (with or with out thresholds being met) with a slightly down bias.

    These climatic items which are showing a convergence to bring the climate to a colder trend are as follows:

    Solar Variability- weakening.

    Geo Magnetic Field – weakening.

    Milankovitch Cycles – on balance more favorable for cooling in contrast to 8000 years ago.

    Land/Ocean Arrangements remaining highly favorable for cooling.

    Ice Dynamic- S.H. could become favorable for cooling.

    The above is the big picture in the climate dynamic.

    For the refined picture of the climate dynamic one has to look at earth intrinsic climatic items.

    Which on balance should favor cooling some being moderated by prolonged solar activity . If the following are indeed moderated by solar activity this will make the case for cooling due to prolonged minimum solar conditions much stronger and much more likely.

    Clouds increasing.

    Volcanic Activity increasing.

    Meridional Atmospheric Circulation trend increasing.

  3. Danube river frozen; remember 2012 winter Danube was frozen solid in all 10 Countries.
    So i’m sure that we well get cold winters well before 2030.

  4. [The magnetic field of the Sun grows, what means that the flux of cosmic rays decreases, increasing the number of clouds and leading to the warming again. Next comes the reverse process, where the magnetic field of the Sun decreases, the intensity of cosmic ray rises, reducing the clouds and making the atmosphere cool again. This process comes with some delay.]

    Less cosmic radiation leads to fewer clouds, and vice versa, according to Svensmark! Cosmic rays, particular muons, seed cloud condensation.

    Fewer clouds warm the earth, not cool, via albedo effects.

    • This is the way I understand it also. The statements of the author to the contrary would make one wonder about their credibility.

    • Not sure if the translation is correct or not.

      As I understand it, thin high-level clouds do not prevent incoming solar radiation from being absorbed by the atmosphere; thicker low-level clouds do reflect it (and top-to-bottom cumulonimbus clouds are neutral in effects). However, I also am under the impression (based on other articles and research) that cosmic radiation – because of its higher energy levels – results in ionization around dust/bacterial/fungal nuclei in the upper stratosphere which thereby causes GREATER cloud formation, not less. This scientist, and the article, would seem to argue the complete opposite: that lower activity in our sun would allow more cosmic radiation into the heliosphere and cause decreased cloud formation.

      So which is accurate per cosmic radiation on atmospheric cloud formation? More cosmic radiation = more clouds, or more cosmic radiation = less clouds?

      I’m reticent to trust a Google translation when many other articles are in agreement about cosmic radiation (which can only increase during periods of low solar activity) leading to enhanced cloud formation in the upper stratosphere.

      • Thin or not so thin, any high-level clouds are going to increase albedo, thus lend to cooling, as high level clouds are fairly transparent to outgoing longwave radiation.
        Lower level dense cumulus will tend to absorb LWR.

  5. There is a difference between a full on Ice Age with a major glaciations down to 40 degree Lat caused by changes in the Earth’s orbit and tilt, and minor cooling period called a “Mini Ice Age” over the last 70 years caused by a solar down turn, caused by the orbital parameters of the Jovian Gas Giants affecting the Suns orbit around the Solar System BarryCentre.
    The former may kick off in a Thousand years from now; the latter is under way and will return to another warm period after 2040.
    We need a new term for the Harsh Winters cause by sequential series of harsh winters during a Solar Minimum. An Ice age doesn’t cover it and Mini Ice Ages is just too easy to confuse the public, and because our journalistic colleagues are so slack with their prose that Mini gets dropped first, confusing the hell out of Joe Public.

    • Perhaps the most accurate term that could be used would be “Interglacial Cooling Period.” – ICP – we always need an acronyms, eh?

    • worst scenario?
      we also have a magnetic reversal as the sun dies down for a while
      the nth n sth poles are still wandering merrily, sth is near level with tasmania I gather, n the nth is still full tilt towards russia.

    • Jim bob that warm period will likely be a brief respite before a new solar minimum just like in the period between 1300 to 1850 where there were 4 mini ice ages. We will not be getting off easy.

      • Perhaps, during the period 1300 to 1830 there were a series of AMP type events in pairs totaling two pairs for each major cooling period – Sporer and Maunder, interspaced with shorter cooling cycles before, in between, and with Dalton at the end, single AMP event solar twin cycle minimums.
        This one is forecast to be a twin cycle, similar to Dalton, with the next in 172 years from the start of cycle 24.
        We will get what we will get, but it will be much colder than we would like. At my age I don’t think I will see the end of this Solar Minimum. It snowed when I came into this world and it will snow when I go out, and I think that’s a better prediction than Gore’s non at all..

      • On the BBC news website in the science section today, they’ve actually said that Arctic ice grew by a third in 2013. Sorry, the link won’t work, but it’s easy to find.

  6. How climate “scientists” can be so dismissive of any potential effect by the Sun on climate “change” is simply ludicrous to me.

    1% change in the solar “constant” implies a “radiative forcing” of almost 14 watts per square metre TOA.

    Even the 0.1% climate “scientists” dismissively claim is ~1.4 watts per square metre – larger than the “forcing” they attribute to CO2.

    Always remember that the manner in which climate “scientists” add up various distinct radiative fluxes is wrong anyway.

    Even if the Sun’s radiation had a similar value to the atmospheric radiation say in early morning or late evening the Sun’s radiation originates from over 5500 degrees C temperature and carries the “heat signature” of this with it.

    To claim radiation originating from trace gases at minus 18 degrees C has equivalent heating power to the Sun’s radiation based on a number is absurd.

    Besides that all warming and cooling in history was completely natural and far more significant than today’s now non-existent warming !

    The next 5 -15 years could decide the climate “emergency” f the Sun’s activity continues to “nose dive”.

    We will either be saying looks like the alarmists were right or, in my opinion, how could we have been so stupid to buy that manmade CO2 driven climate change BS.

    • Hi Rosco, I go with “how could we be so stupid”..
      and we will be reopening coal mines PDQ if it starts to bite..because we will need to light n power indoor hydro farms to keep any semblance of food supply up to the numbers we have now.
      even so, many will die.
      cold times are often drier so feeding animals is also going to be harder to do.
      inground veg crops like turnips taters and beets n mangolds may again become cattle fodder..and for many of the poor also.
      corn needs warmth and 120 days to mature
      many place wont reach the temp needed to ripen crops properly.
      there ARE lessons in survival to be learnt from oldtimes. thing is the people who need to know this..dont!

  7. Is she married? A smart blonde Russian? Wonder if she’d like to learn some capitalism from a very helpful American?

    • Cannot understand your comment, or the comment made by captain fish. What have her looks got to do with ice ages, or AGW? Your puerile comments add nothing to the debate!

      • Hello “jay”,
        My comments have nothing to do with her statements. I’m commenting on how beautiful she is for a very brilliant woman in Russia. I’m assuming of course that she is Russian.

        I was flirting. Have you ever heard of that? Have you heard of making an ass out of oneself when confronted with a good looking woman online?

        no? didn’t think so.

        As to her statements? Well, as with all models and prognostications, time will tell.

        • Captain fish, carry on making an ass of yourself, if that’s what you feel you have to do. Just don’t be surprised when people point it out to you.

  8. The lunatics on the left never let facts and hard data get in the way of their ideology. The simple fact is government has found a way to make money off this global warming thingy and getting them to let go of cash is harder than taking a bone away from a pit bull. Truth be damned…

    • New Bulletin, December 24, 2050;

      Several prominent scientists who have been studying the Global (AGW) Warming over the last fifty years were speaking at the UN today. They have request further monetary grants to continue their studies stating…

      “When we moved our IPCC headquarters to Belize in order to stay ahead of the glaciation in the early 2040’s, we used more of grant budget than expected. We will require an additional $800 billion (USD) to continue to study the global warming model and why they might have in error.”

      ..the UN has asked the IMF and EU to assist in the grant to cover the 3% that the United States will not provide.

  9. The Elite want to use AGW for gaining more control, and when that’s impossible, they will use global cooling as their cudgel. Fiddlin

  10. http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011GL050168.pdf

    This s article is good but it fails to make the solar /volcanic climate connection.

    In addition they do not factor the relative strength of the earth’s magnetic field and the possibility of an increase in clouds ,and a more meridional atmospheric circulation as a result of prolonged minimum solar conditions.

    When this is added to the context of this article I think one has a comprehensive explanation as to how the start of the Little Ice Age following the Medieval Warm Period may have taken place and how like then (around 1275 AD) is similar to today with perhaps a similar result taken place going forward from this point in time.
    If indeed this were to occur we would be in heading toward a Little Ice Age once again.

    Major volcanic activity in response to prolonged minimum solar conditions is going to have to be monitored due to past historical data showing a correlation.

    • The article is on to something as I have said in my previous post but it just needed to emphasize the solar/climate connection a little bit more. This is what I have tried to do with this post and my previous post on the article.

      I want to add the Wolf Solar Minimum went from 1280-1350 AD ,followed by the Sporer Minimum from 1450-1550 AD.

      This Wolf Minimum corresponding to the onset of the Little Ice Age.

      John Casey Space and Science Center has shown through the data a prolonged minimum solar event/major volcanic eruption correlation.

      Today is very similar to 1275 AD. If prolonged minimum solar conditions become entrenched (equal to or greater then say the Wolf Minimum) accompanied by Major Volcanic Activity I say a Little Ice Age will be in the making.

      Milankovitch Cycles still favoring cold N.H. summers if not more so then during the last Little Ice Age , while the Geo Magnetic Field is weaker in contrast to the last Little Ice Age.

      I would not be surprised if the next Little Ice Age comes about if the prolonged solar minimum expectations are realized in full.

  11. She says (below) which evidence suggest the opposite.

    That evidence being increases in volcanic activity due to SO2 emissions are associated with colder temperatures and occur during the Ice Age not after.

    Her notion that increases in volcanic activity after an Ice Age due to associated increases in CO2 bring about an end to an Ice Age is flat out wrong in my opinion.

    She is forgetting that CO2 FOLLOWS the temperature does not lead it.

    What she said in the article.

    The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. The increase in the volcanic activity comes after the Ice Age and it leads to the greenhouse gas emissions

    • Yes, Salvatore, you are correct. C02 follows heat . And many planetary scientists are happy to state this fact….. as long as they’re talking about another planet, not Earth!

      • Technically speaking, you mean that CO2 follows temperature. Heat is relative: 0° is hot compared to -80°.

  12. Yes, would that AGW be providing enough “green house gas” to counter the present and forthcoming reduction in Solar loading on the Earth’s temperature. This is of course compounded by all of the aerosols and dust particulate being released into the upper atomosphere by the recent increase in volcanism, and serves to further attenuate the Sun’s light output as measured at the surface of the planet.

    Given a few more Years and Dr. Popova’s thesis will be indisputable. Of course with no economic incentives, cap and trade, or stipends to pander to, the simple observation of imperical data tells the real story. The End.

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