New paper suggests that recent warming has been totally natural.
Dr Jennifer Marohasy and Dr John Abbot spent the last year researching and estimating how much global temperatures would have risen during the twentieth century in the absence of carbon dioxide emissions by humans.
After applying the latest big data technique to six 2,000-year-long proxy-temperature series, they were unable to confirm that recent global warming is anything but natural.
Indeed, they think the warming “might have occurred anyway, even if there was no industrial revolution.”
Although they found up to 1°C of warming from 1830 to 2000, their results also suggest “that even if there had been no industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels, there would have still been warming through the twentieth century – to at least 1980.”
However, in light of Leo Tolstoys’s prediction (below), Dr Marohasy thinks their new technical paper in GeoResJ (vol. 14, pages 36-46) “will likely be ignored.”
“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he already knows, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” – Leo Tolstoy
The IPCC also estimates warming of approximately 1°C during that period, but claims it was all human caused.
Dr Jennifer Marohasy is an Australian biologist, columnist and blogger. Dr Marohasy has a BSc and a PhD from the University of Queensland. She has published in science and law journals including Atmospheric Research, Advances in Atmospheric Research, Wetlands Ecology and Management, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, Public Law Review and Environmental Law and Management.
Dr John Abbot has been involved in research on kinetic and mechanistic behavior associated with complex chemical and physical systems since graduating with a degree in chemistry from Imperial College, London, and a PhD at McGill University.