Warnings of impending ice age “exaggerated”

Italian website downplays the idea that we’re headed in a Little Ice Age by comparing it to a “real”  ice age.

(Following is my interpretation of a Google translation of the Italian article. Please let me know if you think I’ve grossly missed the real meaning of the story.)

In recent days, several national newspapers (I assume Italian newspapers) have warned that the present fall in solar activity will cause an Ice Age within a few years, says freddofili.it.

Those warnings are based on a NASA statement that “The decrease in solar activity is the largest for over 10,000 years,” and that an “Ice Age is expected from 2019”.

This statement, in turn, was made by meteorologist Paul Dorian, in agreement with studies by Dr. Valentina Zharkov.

“It is, as usual, journalistic and scientific hype with a grain of truth, which blends reality and fantasy,” the article continues.

Both the Maunder and Dalton Minimums “were characterized by a sharp drop in global temperatures, on the order of about 1 ° C on average, so far removed from 10-15 ° C typical decline of a real ice age … ..”

But the effects would be far from the catastrophic scenarios that occur during a sudden Ice Age (as have been well described in the movie “The Day After Tomorrow”).

Just for the record, please let it be known that I have never agreed with the scenarios described in “The Day After Tomorrow.”


Thanks to Martin Siebert for this link

19 thoughts on “Warnings of impending ice age “exaggerated”

  1. Umm, sorry but aren’t we already living in an “Ice age” as witnessed by having THREE permanent ice sheets ( Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland)? Surely what they mean to say instead of ” and that an “Ice Age” is expected from 2019.” is “the current interglacial period will come to an end in 2019”. Like you say, the real story is another “Maunder” or “Dalton” like period of weather is expected.

    • Yes, the ice age is 4 million years old now. Technically we are in a geologically short interglacial period in the extended ice age.

  2. A return to Maunder minimum conditions would be unlikely to be a disaster unless humanity did nothing. Modern indoor agriculture could easily make up for broad acre crop losses and be instigated within one season. True the crops would be different and wheat would be difficult to grow indoors but it would become viable if moved towards the equator.

    Interestingly a Google search of “The decrease in solar activity is the largest for over 10,000 years,” – quotes included – yields this page as the sole result ? Did NASA actually say that ?

    • Modern indoor ag cannot hope to make up for the loss of cereals and grains.
      You can grow garden stuff indoors but not cereals, which make up the bulk of our calories.
      The US only has a 15-30 day supply of food on hand available for general public consumption at any one time.
      A massive failure of crops would most certainly be devastating.
      And it would take time to switch crop types and bring them to harvest if the climate changed even a small amount.
      Modern hybrids are in many ways not as tolerant of temperature change as their ancestors.

      The majority of wheat for example is grown in Canada. If the wheat belt of Canada is no longer viable for the growing of cereals how long would it take to shift that production south?
      I would think at least one year at a minimum.

      As to it being a disaster of course it would. Disaster is one of those subjective words that is situation dependent. Would humanity survive? Of course. Will people starve en mass? Some will. Without a doubt. How many? Who knows. I suppose it depends on how well we prepare.

      The good news is that it would finally drive a stake in the heart of the Global Warming Vampire.

  3. Unfortunately NASA do not warn of the Transition period. They only speak of a peak period. The Transition has begun in a serious way and will continue. As for the steep drop in temps … we are being warned of 8 to 10 degree colder winter. We have seen and average of about 5 to 8 degrees this fall.

    I will believe the unpaid weather patriots who have studied and put real science in front of paid shills who pretend to be free thinking scientists.

    • Well said Craig.
      There will be a sorting out of these exceivly well paid shills.
      Starting with the US east coast Academia who have been peddling easy climate degrees based on a lie.

    • Craig, I don’t think we’ve seen an average of 5-8 degrees colder than usual weather this fall– unless you mean at some specific location.

      You’re certainly right that not being able to grow grain at our usual latitudes wd be catastrophic. Many of us eat very little grain, but our food animals are dependent on grain and hay. A partial substitution of root crops like potato & rutabaga & turnip could be made, and these are more cold-tolerant, but you’re right change of crop or ag location takes time. Even creating increased seed takes time.

      US used to have a grain reserve maintained by govt. Big Ag talked govt into letting them take over the responsibility, but they have not done so.

  4. I liked the movie (sort of) The Day After Tomorrow but the science what pure Hollywood fiction – as usual, IMO.

  5. I have read the article in Italian and English; the auto-translate did not do a bad job. The tone of the article is certainly to pooh-pooh the concerns of solar physicists predicting a little ice age, as well as the effects of the LIA itself (by contrasting it as feeble compared to a “real” ice age). The implication is that solar physicists should stick stick to physics and not bother their pretty little heads about effects on earth. This despite their own commentary of glaciers advancing 1-1.5km which, in some areas, would severely impact villages, rail and road lines, and tourist attractions.

    The tone was very condescending; for me, an instant hackles-up-and-what-are-they-trying-to-sell warning.

  6. I guess what is surprising scientists is that Sun’s activity seems to be stopping too much suddenly. Effects that were predicted for the SC25 seems to be present right now at the end of SC24. Let’s remember this 2016 winter in subtropical South America had 2 months of temperature anomaly of -3ºC. The other 3 and a half months were about -1ºC (yes, the meteorological winter took 5 and a half months in this region). In Australia and New Zealand the cold weather continued till beginning of October with at least 1 month of anomaly of-3ºC in the subtropical region. I am certain that if you ask some people from places in these regions they will refer to this winter season as ‘frightening’ though the vast majority isn’t still acquainted with the possibility of cooling times ahead. Also there is another information (to be confirmed) indicating we could be facing now a ‘bond event’ (please refer to wikipedia for some briefing on this subject) which is configured by a coincidence of the end of different cycles (mostly connected to the Sun’s relative orbital positions). If it turns out to be true there could be a possibility of a most remarkable event like the ‘8.2 k-yr event’ or even the ‘Younger Dryas’ instead than a ‘Little Ice Age’. Also remember the model proposed by Prof. Zharkova predicts 50 yrs of cooling temperatures but there are now many other scientists presenting papers expanding the period for 200+ yrs.

    • The three ‘Younger Dryas’ events were physical disturbances to the Atlantic current which allowed the three periods of restoration of the NH glaciation.
      8.2 k-yr. physical events coincided with a deep Solar Grand Minimum.
      You could add the AD600 Grand solar minimum was made much worse with the three world wide T6/T7 volcanic eruptions.
      All five examples are physical geological climate forcing on top of any Solar slowdown.

  7. Driven by the need to continually support the Global warming thesis, climate scientists are trying to look at the temperature record at altogether to fine a scale. Viewing the Holocene at a broader scale would probably be much more fruitful. it is useful to look at climate change from a longer term, century by century and even on a millennial perspective.
    All the Northern Hemisphere Ice Core records from Greenland show:
    • the last millennium 1000AD – 2000AD has been the coldest millennium of the entire Holocene interglacial.
    • each of the notable high points in the Holocene temperature record, (Holocene Climate Optimum – Minoan – Roman – Medieval – Modern), have been progressively colder than the previous high point.
    • for its first 7-8000 years the early Holocene, including its high point “climate optimum”, had virtually flat temperatures, an average drop of only ~0.007 °C per millennium.
    • but the more recent Holocene, since a “tipping point” at ~1000BC, has seen a temperature diminution at more than 20 times that earlier rate at about 0.14 °C per millennium.
    • the Holocene interglacial is already 10 – 11,000 years old and judging from the length of previous interglacials the Holocene epoch should be drawing to its close: in this century, the next century or this millennium.
    • the beneficial warming at the end of the 20th century to the Modern high point has been transmuted into the “Great Man-made Global Warming Scare”.
    • eventually this late 20th century minor temperature blip will come to be seen as just noise in the system in the longer term progress of comparatively rapid cooling over the last 3000+ years.
    • other published Greenland Ice Core records as well as GISP2, (NGRIP1, GRIP) corroborate this finding. They also exhibit the same pattern of a prolonged relatively stable early Holocene period followed by a subsequent much more rapid decline in the more recent past.

    This point is more fully illustrated here:


  8. apart from what seems to be volcanic or meteor strike causations..
    the ice ages seem to me to be gradual but consistent ongoing drops,
    then when enough ice and snow doesnt melt one yr?
    i dont see indoor ag as being viable or the amount of people we would need to feed esp re grains
    and while cattle should eat pasture not grain
    chickens do need it, and their eggs n meat are THE easiest fastest to produce and the protein from them is important to health
    vegies and soy goo arent going to keep everyone healthy
    of course it gets bad enough Soylent Green would prob become real;-/

  9. The last solar minimums killed millions but in ways that are not likely today. People huddles together for warmth and aided the spread of diseases like cholera, typhoid and TB. Food supply and cost is something that is important given the huge increase in the global population since the last minimum. Unlike the warmist studies that always assume that no action will be taken to adapt. people will adapt.

  10. vensmark: “global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning” – “enjoy global warming while it lasts”
    Anthony Watts / September 10, 2009
    UPDATED: This opinion piece from Professor Henrik Svensmark was published September 9th in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten. Originally the translation was from Google translation with some post translation cleanup of jumbled words or phrases by myself. Now as of Sept 12, the translation is by Nigel Calder. Hat tip to Carsten Arnholm of Norway for bringing this to my attention and especially for translation facilitation by Ágúst H Bjarnason – Anthony
    Catainia photosphere image August 31st, 2009 – click for larger image

    Translation approved by Henrik Svensmark

    While the Sun sleeps
    Henrik Svensmark, Professor, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen

    “In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth – quite the contrary. And this means that the projections of future climate are unreliable,” writes Henrik Svensmark.

    The star that keeps us alive has, over the last few years, been almost free of sunspots, which are the usual signs of the Sun’s magnetic activity. Last week [4 September 2009] the scientific team behind the satellite SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) reported, “It is likely that the current year’s number of blank days will be the longest in about 100 years.” Everything indicates that the Sun is going into some kind of hibernation, and the obvious question is what significance that has for us on Earth.

    If you ask the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which represents the current consensus on climate change, the answer is a reassuring “nothing”. But history and recent research suggest that is probably completely wrong. Why? Let’s take a closer look.

    Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. It was a time when frosts in May were almost unknown – a matter of great importance for a good harvest. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America. On the whole it was a good time. For example, China’s population doubled in this period.

    But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age. In this cold time, all the Viking settlements in Greenland disappeared. Sweden surprised Denmark by marching across the ice, and in London the Thames froze repeatedly. But more serious were the long periods of crop failures, which resulted in poorly nourished populations, reduced in Europe by about 30 per cent because of disease and hunger.

    “The March across the Belts was a campaign between January 30 and February 8, 1658 during the Northern Wars where Swedish king Karl X Gustav led the Swedish army from Jutland across the ice of the Little Belt and the Great Belt to reach Zealand (Danish: Sjælland). The risky but vastly successful crossing was a crushing blow to Denmark, and led to the Treaty of Roskilde later that year….” – Click for larger image.

    It’s important to realise that the Little Ice Age was a global event. It ended in the late 19th Century and was followed by increasing solar activity. Over the past 50 years solar activity has been at its highest since the medieval warmth of 1000 years ago. But now it appears that the Sun has changed again, and is returning towards what solar scientists call a “grand minimum” such as we saw in the Little Ice Age.

    Blog entry continues on site:

    Comment: Each Grand Solar Minimum has produced serious weather and climate effects in Europe which normally last for two Solar Cycles. In addition there are disordered periods within each 4627 year planetary cycles where several Solar Grand minimums occur within a eight hundred year period, The last one called the MIA stated with Wolf ended with Dalton. This modern solar minimum is a singleton similar to the AD600 minimum. It should be named after Landscheidt as he predicted it first.
    Nicola Scafetta: On the Astronomical Origin of the Hallstatt Oscillation found in Radiocarbon and Climate Records throughout the Holocene.

  11. I don’t know about this. We are due immediately for ALL 3 ice ages – small, medium, and major. They are likely to combine in our lifetime sometime within the next 40 years – so I wouldn’t downplay the real ice age.

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