We’ll get only one year to prepare for a supervolcano, say scientists

Perhaps only days or months

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26 July 2016 – Super volcanoes can eject thousands of cubic kilometers of magma and ash into the atmosphere in a matter of days or few months. That much ash could devastate the entire planet, blocking out light and heat from the sun for years or even decades.

Unfortunately, super volcanoes give very little notice before they blow their tops, a new study in PLOS ONE has found.

When researchers analyzed quartz crystals at the Long Valley Caldera in California, the site of one of these massive eruptions some 760,000 years ago, they found that more than 70% of rim growth had occurred in less than one year.

Perhaps in just days or months.

“Overall, our results show that quartz rims primarily grew within a year of eruption, likely with significant growth in the days to months prior to eruption … with most of the growth taking place in the weeks or days preceding eruption,” the study found..

“These kinds of cataclysmic super-eruptions have occurred a few times in the geological past of our planet,” writes Simone Skully in Business Insider. These include the Taupo Volcanic Zone in New Zealand, Campi Flegrei in Italy and Yellowstone, which has erupted three times in the past million years. There are fears that it could occur again,” warns Skully.

See entire article:

See PLOS ONE link:
“The Year Leading to a Supereruption” by Guilhernne A.R. Gualkla and Stephen R. Sutton

Thanks to Laurel for these links

20 thoughts on “We’ll get only one year to prepare for a supervolcano, say scientists”

  1. -Grand solar minimum,
    -general volcanism,
    -Solar system’s gaseous giants well positionned and ready for a magnetic shutdown, ( unless the” New ” other ninth planet is at à very spécial opposite spot in the solar system, and that, is for another story)

    -Magnetic inversion of the pôles…( Or at the very least an magnetic excurtion)

    Realy.. HOW Can they think and / or say we Still have 50 000 years or so of clément climate and calm weather, is beyond me.

    Being à citoyen canadien, of Québec, and reading Robert’s books while shivering to another cold ( 14 degres C) night ( we had normal summer temp.s during the day, but Luckily, ( I don’t have a cold air machine ( how do you guys name this? Air conditionning, i think?)) we only had three to 4 night of 20 C to 21 degrés C .) is an undescriptible experience.. To think that all that biodiversity is doomed to insane cold conditions.. Unbelivable May become the norm…

    thank you, Robert. You have changed my life, and i will, for now on, try the Best i Can to prépare my family and friends to the right Kind of problèms we will surely have to face.

    What à great laugh i will have, when the same People who insulted me because of my New vision of things, will have to survive shoulder deep snowfall overnight…

    Ive said this before and i will say it Again:

    We got Lucky with 2015. Almost all winter long, we had Rain. Exept two weeks of febuary, when it Was dangerous outside (- 34 C)… if i wasnt for the El nino thing, we would had crawled under seven feet of ice until june.

    Considering the two previous winters, we.are. Going. To. C?@p. our. Pants. This. Winter, i feel it.
    .. Good Luck with you all, especialy in florida, where they are useless when it Comes to snow. ( not to mention, the poor wildlife and plants out there.. ) YOU REALY STILL THINK IT CANT SNOW WHERE YOU LIVE?
    Good Luck with that daydreaming life of yours…

  2. Does tend to suggest that the use of underground hydroponics and artificial lights to grow salads might be one part of surviving a super-volcano, doesn’t it?

    • better pray that your powers coal or nuke then:-)
      and your assuming they will still be running?
      that may not be the case depending on what continent and what damage
      cos the wind n solar wont power your hydro
      and while salad might defer scurvy..just ..its not much of a diet.
      min 12 months stored grain/flour buy, freeze for a week or so to kill any weevil eggs etc then pack with bayleaves in airtight buckets etc
      ditto the rest of the foods you estimate to need for the household.
      and do NOT forget the petfood:-)
      preserves bottled canned veg fruit etc

  3. In all probability the authorities would keep it secret untill they couldn’t for reasons of political and economic stability as well as protecting agendas like agenda 21.

    • correct! the well off illuminati whatever you wanna call em..already have a plan to evacuate to Aus /NZ if Yellowstone blows
      thing is?
      it’s polite to ASK beforehand
      and I strongly suspect they havent!
      the welcome mat mightn BE out.
      well not for THEM anyway

  4. “There is a direct correlation between volcanic events and the number of air conditioning units in a particular locale.”

    John Kerry

  5. Skully’s article contains a mistake: “Yellowstone, which has erupted three times in the past million years”

    should be “Yellowstone, which has erupted three times in the past 2.1 million years”

  6. Actually, Yellowstone has has several eruptions in the last million years. It has had three Super-eruptions, or very large ones, in 2.1 million years. Incidently, the average time between eruptions is about 645,000 yrs, and it has been that since the last one.



  8. According to current mantle-plume theory, Anderson explains, heat from Earth’s core somehow generates narrow jets of hot magma that gush through the mantle and to the surface. The jets act as pipes that transfer heat from the core, and how exactly they’re created isn’t clear, he says. But they have been assumed to exist, originating near where Earth’s core meets the mantle, almost 3,000 kilometers underground — nearly halfway to the planet’s center. The jets are theorized to be no more than about 300 kilometers wide, and when they reach the surface, they produce hot spots.

    While the top of the mantle is a sort of fluid sludge, the uppermost layer is rigid rock, broken up into plates that float on the magma-bearing layers. Magma from the mantle beneath the plates bursts through the plate to create volcanoes. As the plates drift across the hot spots, a chain of volcanoes forms — such as the island chains of Hawaii and Samoa.

    “Much of solid-Earth science for the past 20 years — and large amounts of money — have been spent looking for elusive narrow mantle plumes that wind their way upward through the mantle,” Anderson says.

    To look for the hypothetical plumes, researchers analyze global seismic activity. Everything from big quakes to tiny tremors sends seismic waves echoing through Earth’s interior. The type of material that the waves pass through influences the properties of those waves, such as their speeds. By measuring those waves using hundreds of seismic stations installed on the surface, near places such as Hawaii, Iceland, and Yellowstone National Park, researchers can deduce whether there are narrow mantle plumes or whether volcanoes are simply created from magma that’s absorbed in the sponge-like shallower mantle.

    “This is a simple demonstration that volcanoes are the result of normal broad-scale convection and plate tectonics,” Anderson says. He calls this theory “top-down tectonics,” based on Kelvin’s initial principles of mantle convection. In this picture, the engine behind Earth’s interior processes is not heat from the core but cooling at the planet’s surface. This cooling and plate tectonics drives mantle convection, the cooling of the core, and Earth’s magnetic field. Volcanoes and cracks in the plate are simply side effects.


  9. I can’t even get my local city to develope an evacuation plan from grass fires or train derailment chemical fires. Getting the Feds to address this will be even harder. I’ve found when it comes to real problems, governments excel in sticking their heads in the ground…or elsewhere.

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