Where are the excess deaths?

“There are no “excess deaths” of any statistical significance except for Texas and Michigan.”
– TRM
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Where are the excess deaths?

TRM

Hear hear!!! (In response to “We are NOT all in this together!!”) Well said. If there was ever an “us and them” moment this is it. Since this is all done with the justification that they must do this due to the “deadly” SARS-Cov-2 virus and the COVID-19 named after it, where are the excess deaths?

I’ve looked up year to date deaths from the CDC site for the first 16 weeks and the average annual deaths for 9 states so far.

In some online discussions some were suggesting using “excess deaths” to see what effect the Covid-19 disease is having and I thought that would be a reasonable approach as it gets past the deaths “with/from” issue.

Using these numbers there are no “excess deaths” of any statistical significance except for Texas and Michigan, which are about 10% above average. This makes the case for lockdown at all, much less continuing, dodgy at best.

New York: Expected 50,319 / Actual 39,005
Georgia: Expected 27,699 / Actual 27,161
Illinois: Expected 36,138 / Actual 37,870
Texas: Expected 60,408 / Actual 66,071
Washington: Expected 19,599 / Actual 19,270
Oregon: Expected 12,028 / Actual 11,834
Florida: Expected 66,462 / Actual 68,427
Michigan: Expected 32,306 / Actual 35,598
Pennsylvania: Expected 44,029 / Actual 37,383

All 2020 deaths year to date are from this CDC page:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Click the state and then go through weeks 1 to 16 and then get the “Total Deaths” from the bottom right.

New York: 150,959 yearly deaths (2013-16) expected average for 4 months = 50,319 https://apps.health.ny.gov/public/tabvis/PHIG_Public/lcd/reports/#state

Georgia: 83,098 yearly deaths (2017) expected average for 4 months = 27,699
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241581/births-and-deaths-in-the-us-by-state/

Illinois: 108,414 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 36,138
https://dph.illinois.gov/data-statistics/vital-statistics/death-statistics

Texas: 181,226 yearly deaths (2012-15) expected average for 4 months = 60,408
https://dshs.texas.gov/chs/vstat/annrpts.shtm

Washington: 55,796 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 19,599
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/Pubs/422-099-2018-2010-VitalStatHighlights.pdf

Oregon: 36,085 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 12,028
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/BIRTHDEATHCERTIFICATES/VITALSTATISTICS/ANNUALREPORTS/VOLUME2/Pages/index.aspx

Florida: 199,385 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 66,462
http://www.flpublichealth.com/VSBOOK/pdf/2018/vscomp.pdf

Michigan: 96,919 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 32,306
https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/pha/osr/deaths/causRScnty.asp

Pennsylvania: 132,088 yearly deaths (2014-17) expected average for 4 months = 44,029
https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/HealthStatistics/VitalStatistics/DeathStatistics/Documents/Death_AgeSexRaceYear_PA_2013_2017.pdf


15 thoughts on “Where are the excess deaths?”

  1. “Where are the excess deaths?”

    In the minds of the powers that be to avoid a long list of miscreants. The real deadly disease we need to worry about is excessive debt and its consequences.

    • excess deaths is only a constructed statistical concept; nowadays frequently misused and believed even by academics.

      I read the next:
      Festinger identified five conditions that needed to be met in order for the cult members to double down on their beliefs and avoid cognitive dissonance.

      1. There must be conviction

      2. There must be commitment to this conviction

      3. The conviction must be amenable to unequivocal disconfirmation

      4. Such unequivocal disconfirmation must occur

      5. Social support must be available subsequent to the disconfirmation.

      How about all rational measurements taken by government and proven correct by their academical advisers.

  2. That’s quite a project Steven. Interesting. Regarding Texas, just over one-half of the population is either Black or of Mexican descent. Both of these are subject to the G6PD deficiency which– if given hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine may precipitate the “crisis that resembles altitude sickness” mentioned in an earlier article here (Dr. something-Sidell).

    That is, a certain percentage of each racial group has the trait. If treatment with either of these two substances is widespread in Texas (without first testing for G6PD deficiency), it could cause increased deaths. I was unable to find out how widespread the treatment might be.

  3. Well with empty hospitals all over the country, not to mention much of the world, we can safely assume that keeping patients away from doctors has improved their health.

    • According to a recent study by Johns Hopkins, more than 250,000 people in the United States die every year because of medical mistakes, making it the third leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer.
      And guess what. The Government did not close the economy!!!!

  4. and a goodly percentage of the normal death toll is?
    Iatrogenic
    ie properly taken, doc prescribed meds
    and hospital/nursing home”incidents”
    more of the medical prof are coming out and saying the shutdowns were over the top and as above the massive death tolls just arent happening as “modelling” said
    hmm like the lousy CC modelling? uh huh.
    chap tonight pointing this out on radio and gee the abc rn aus host wasnt handling it well at all;-)))

  5. According to Aljazeera TV, all 50 US States are “opening up”, with a few counties resisting. Say, Americans, may we swop presidents?

  6. Some more updates.

    Massachusetts joins the +10% club and New Jersey is the worst hit. Interestingly New York is 11,000 BELOW its expected and New Jersey is 8,000 ABOVE. I know a lot of people live in NJ but work in NW but I don’t know if that is a valid explanation.

    Massachusetts: Expected 19,062 / Actual 21,800

    Massachusetts: 57,185 yearly deaths (2014-17) expected average for 4 months = 19,062
    https://www.mass.gov/lists/death-data

    New Jersey: Expected 24,686 / Actual 32,600

    New Jersey: 74,057 yearly deaths (2015-2018) expected average for 4 months = 24,686
    https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/query/result/mort/MortStateICD10/Count.html

    Total: Expected 392,736 / Actual 397,019

    Entire USA: Expected 937,834 / Actual 961,230

    Entire USA: 2,813,503 yearly deaths (2017) expected average for 4 months = 937,834
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf

  7. The link given for total 2020 deaths actually leads to flu/pneumonia deaths on the CDC website. This number would be much smaller than total deaths.

    I am finding a decided reluctance on govt info sites to give total death statistics. They always want to break it up by cause, age, race and so on.

    I don’t think the argument is valid until you can compare current total deaths to total deaths in previous years during the same time period. I’m not sure that info is available to the public, for some strange reason.

    • See new post below. Seasonal differences accounted for and a direct week 1-16 comparison for 2020 to the 4 year average (2016-19) for the same 1-16 week period.

      That page was the only one listing “total deaths” (bottom right) along with the pneumonia & flu. They also have a “Download” which I used for my new script.

      Finding the data on total deaths is strangely difficult but it is listed and the “Download” button gave me the info for my new script.

  8. Entire USA 961,230 actual against average expected 937,834. That’s 2,5% more, which is not really abnormal.

  9. I redid things with data from the CDC (all data from one source is nice). My script did up the first 16 weeks of the year for 2020 and averaged the first 16 weeks of 2016-19 for a four year comparison.

    The entire USA is about 4.5% higher than the 4 year average.

    All the data is from this CDC page:
    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

    The script and all related files are here if you want to kick the tires:
    https://www.dropbox.com/sh/fh9x5fngmfbeiiu/AAAH-OtOMqiY_R9qqG6YccCRa?dl=0

    The script generates data for all 50 states plus DC and New York City (CDC treats it separately from New York State). Connecticut and North Carolina are missing some weeks in 2020 (5 weeks & 3 weeks respectively). Pennsylvania is also negative but not missing any weeks.

    I will be doing up a Powershell script for this as well so the Windows folks can run it natively if they don’t have WSL2 or a Linux system around.

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