“Why is it Cooling So Fast?” asks Dr Sircus

“Why is it Cooling So Fast?” asks Dr Sircus

Increased volcanic activity is one of the culprits, he answers.

Bardarbunga-31Aug1431 Oct 2014 – (Excerpts) – “We are being beaten by a one two punch,” says Dr Sircus. “From one side we have the sun diminishing its radiance and on the other volcanoes have gone berserk these past few years.

The head of the Space Research section of the Russian Academy of Science, Professor Habibullo Abdussamatov, in 2006 issued a press release, warning that the world should prepare for imminent global cooling. He predicted that the global cooling would start in 2012 – 2015, and would likely peak around 2055.

The Russians did not calculate into their predictions these record breaking volcanic emissions into the atmosphere. Alone the sun was throwing us into cooling.

Increasing volcanic eruptions have been spewing ash into the atmosphere over the last 14 years are partially responsible for the cooling of Earth…a recent study published in Nature Geoscience suggests. Researchers attribute this helping hand to just 17 of the eruptions from 1998 to 2012 that pumped sulfur dioxide into Earth’s upper atmosphere. The molecule formed liquid particles that reflected sunlight back to space rather than to the Earth’s surface.

The average number of volcanic eruptions per year should be about 50 to 60; as of December 5, 2013, we were already at 83.

The number of volcanoes that are erupting continues to rise. In 2013, we witnessed the most volcanic eruptions worldwide that we have ever seen in a single year, and this increased activity has carried over into 2014. The previous number was set in 2010, at 82 volcanic eruptions for the year. The number of volcanoes erupting across the planet has been steadily rising from just 55 recorded in 1990. The average number of volcanic eruptions per year should be about 50 to 60; as of December 5, 2013, we were already at 83.

More sunlight being reflected back into space

“In the last decade, the amount of volcanic aerosol in the stratosphere has increased, so more sunlight is being reflected back into space,” said lead author Benjamin Santer, climate scientist at Laurence Livermore National Laboratory, in a press release. “This has created a natural cooling of the planet and has partly offset the increase in surface and atmospheric temperatures due to human influence.”

If this winter is even worse than the last one we are going to be in for a hard time. Having a month to six weeks shaved off our collective growing season suddenly is going to have grave consequences in a world already with a short supply of food.

If sulfur dioxide forms liquid particles that reflect sunlight back to space rather than to the Earth’s surface, then how much cooling will result from the massive amounts of sulfur dioxide being emitted by Iceland’s Bardarbunga Volcano? (35,000 tons per day!)

See entire article:

Thanks to George Martinez for this link

30 thoughts on ““Why is it Cooling So Fast?” asks Dr Sircus

  1. Dr. Sircus

    If the volcanic aerosols( which they are not according to the data)do not make it up to the stratosphere they are gong to have little climatic effects.

    So you are wrong on this one as of today.

  2. Bardarbunga is a good question since it is not explosive is the SO2 getting high enough to make a difference????

  3. I forget where I read an article stating that the officials in Iceland indicate that the Sulfur Dioxide is not reaching the height that would affect weather.

    • The current eruption is a dike/rift eruption being fed at the moment by the same deeper magna chamber as Bardarbunga its self is. The dike/rift eruption seems from reports, to be empting the volcano’s upper chambers of magma and with the volcano’s larva plug subsiding into the emptying chamber there is a risk of melt water entering the very hot chamber. If this happens Bardarbunga’s SO2 may well end up in the high atmosphere after all. This dike/rift eruption could go on for months and then stop as soon as the volcano blows its self out in a very large eruption event, or it could just stop. Like weather, what will happen, will happen.

  4. The Russians did not calculate into their predictions these record breaking volcanic emissions into the atmosphere. Alone the sun was throwing us into cooling.

    Robert do you think there will be a significant change from earlier estimates for the severity and duration of this mini ice age sub cycle that Doctors Abdussamatov and Casey predict?

    • Yes, based on the ice-age cycle, I think the mini ice age will become a full-fledged ice age. However, I have no idea how long it will take for us to realize it.

  5. To me the big problem are the estimates! How much dust or S02 does it take to reflect sunlight back? We have seen in recent years that our science community state estimations based on crude and biased data as fact.
    Even in Iceland, if the S02 isn’t being shot directly into the high atmosphere will it still have an effect? Do we actually know?
    How many small to medium size volcanoes, erupting over a year, does it take to mimic the effect of a super volcano?

  6. There is some irony here. One of the papers being quoted includes Ben Santer as an author. He and colleagues are members of the “team” which has been pushing global warming over the last 20 + years. Dr Santer is “credited” with changing the scientific view in a 1996 IPCC report which included caution regarding global warming to a comment which claimed human attribution with certainty. His recent paper adds one more excuse to the more than 52 which have so far been provided in peer review literature for the standstill in global temperatures over the last 18 years.

  7. Great article. Thanks! I have been looking to no avail. How has 2014″s volcanic activity been thus far compared to 2013? Thanks

  8. I am just hoping that Robert is wrong here. OK he’s not wrong on the Ice Age coming, it is, but he might be wrong on us seeing a new mini-ice age this next grand solar cycle which might put any accurate timing back a couple of hundred years – not that he claims any timing of course…

    So I find myself a year or so out of date on the research here…

    Robert, do you have any recent research/literature on the question of whether we are going to get a Grand Solar Minimum or Grand Solar Regular cycle? To me this is abolutely key to our futures.

    If the Mininimum cometh a full blown Ice Age (or glaciation) could be very imminent indeed, especially if the volcanic situation worsens to the point that SO2 and Ash are errupted high into the stratosphere.

    I am hoping your educated guess does not materialise. It is not a question of being right or wrong as we all have insufficient data to be sure on timing, which is the important issue. We can be very sure that another major glaciation is imminent and that you are certainly right on that. It would be useful to discover the degree of imminence or have a basis for a practically useful judgement.

      • Joe,

        Thanks for the link. It is some time since I looked into this and the most hopefull work I had seen then was that by DeJaeger and others who are in favour of a return to a Grand Regular cycle. De Jaeger’s work seemed to suggest it would be a close run thing, but of course they are not alone.

        My big problem is that really it is a serious issue as I am sure Robert, yourself and others are fully aware. For me it is a matter of serious concern especially as we have this horrific AGW cult running everything and the planet into great danger.

        There has not yet been much cooling this century so far but it is very likely to intensify over the next few years. With the pathologicals in Washington trying to start wars all over the world to keep their empire going we are looking at a tripple whammy pudding of global economic collapse, war and a rapidly cooling world – with a little ebola seasoning.

        As we are living in a time in which reason is shunned where it is not banned outright. I want to protect my family as best I can and so I look for the best information available so I can plan accordingly.

        Like I say Robert is right in the medium term but might be too pessimistic over the short term. The best research on the most important question, i.e. Is the sun going GReg or GMin should ideally be answered before the reality hits. A GReg will likely take us back to the climate of the early C19th which in my view would not be sufficient to trigger the imminent glaciation. A GMin is what is needed for the worst case scenario in my estimation.

  9. I see my answer (comparing this years volcanic activity to last years)in this article. Sorry. And I did read over it once. (I guess I am getting “up there”)LOL

  10. OOPS. What about this year? Not last, “as of December 5, 2013, we were already at 83.” looking for info for 2014. Thanks

  11. Ah yes, the obligatory addition if you want to have grant money –

    “This has created a natural cooling of the planet and has partly offset the increase in surface and atmospheric temperatures due to human influence.”

    In other words, it’s only because of an increase in volcanism that we haven’t turned into Venus yet because of fossil fuels. Right.

    The additional volcanism may be helping the cooling, but it isn’t hindering the non-existent warming. The warming is over, accept what little will be caused by the late forming el nino, the cooling is obvious.

    We would be reacting to that reality if it wasn’t that the plan is to depopulate the planet. The sooner people realize that this hoax is all about killing you off, unless you are part of the elite and their support population, the better your chance to survive the oncoming ice age, no matter whether it is mini, midi, or maxi. you are being given an amply time to realize and react, but are you?

  12. I have seen no evidence that supports ” why is it cooling so fast” and this expression is premature.Average global temperatures and sea surface temps are up on the 30 yr average. It may start to cool rapidly in the future then you can say that.

  13. What’s interesting is I saw a documentary where they were saying how Earth got out of ‘snowball Earth’ (a period of time when Earth was entirely covered in ice from pole to pole). They said Earth got out of it because volcanoes erupting punched through the ice and all the Co2 being emitted from the volcanoes is what made Earth warm up. But recently scientists have been saying volcanoes cool the Earth. So who to believe now…

    • Joe that has everything to do with the Earth’s orbit actually…when outside forces work on Earth’s orbit making it oval shaped and its at its absolute furthest from the sun it causes “snowball Earth”… I forgot the scientific term for it but basically this happens every 120,000 years…part of the milankovitch cycle I believe I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m worng

      • Milankovitch cycles correct, moving the orbit to a more cirular orbit and the tilt of the earth causes the Northern Land mass to face the sun during summer coupled with a long period Solar Warm period. The earth’s tilt also increases and decreases in single digit degress over a long period.

  14. “Snowball Earth” is nothing more than another insane hypothesis to shore up the other insane hypothesis of greenhouse gases. The chances of that ever occurring while the Sun is still present are zero.

    Do people not realise that the solar radiation at Earth’s orbit is capable of inducing temperatures well in excess of the boiling point of water on surfaces that absorb substantial amounts of it ?

    Thus the most significant parameter in Earth’s climate is probably albedo – how much solar radiation is reflected back into space !

    Our atmosphere reduces the heating effect of the Sun – even the IPCC admit it absorbs ~25% of the incident radiation.

    The reason the IPCC and climate science do not consider this relevant is because they are stupid enough to believe the Sun shines all over the world at once.

    Trenberth’s energy budget gives the absorbed solar radiation a value of 78 W/sqm but the Sun does not shine all over the world at the same time so this value is in reality 4 times 78 = 312 W/sqm during the day alone.

    This amount of direct solar heating of our atmosphere is far more significant than the absorption of far weaker infra-red emitted by the Earth’s surfaces – this is direct solar radiation which is thousands of times more energetic than the Earth’s feeble infra-red.

    And of course this % of solar radiation is prevented from directly heating the surface HENCE the atmosphere reduces direct heating and does not cause heating as the “greenhouse hypothesis” claims.

    One of the other supposed mysteries of Earth postulated by climatologists is the faint young Sun paradox.

    The energy output from the Sun is supposedly significantly higher today than when the Earth was “young”.

    I say this is easily explained – not by absurd “greenhouse gas” effects but by continental drift.

    As important as albedo is the fact that today 70% of the Earth’s surfaces are covered by oceans.

    Most of the tropics – from ~23 N to ~23 South – is exposed to more than 92 % of the Sun’s radiation power. On a clear day this could be in excess of 1000 W/sqm.

    Most of the tropics is currently ocean – simply use Google Earth to view the Pacific and you see almost entirely ocean. Observe the Americas and there is almost 50% ocean and Africa about 33%.

    Water absorbs the solar radiation and some of it causes a thermal response and some causes evaporation with little thermal response.

    Water has a specific heat of over 4000 J/kg degree C while dry soil has an average of ~800 J/kg degree C.

    This means it takes 5 times more energy to increase the temperature of water by 1 degree C than soil – the same amount of solar radiation can raise the temperature of soil by 5 degrees C as raises water’s temperature by 1 degree.

    This alone has enormous climate impacts but when you factor in evaporation it means the oceans almost never reach a temperature exceeding 38 degrees C.

    The dry land surfaces however exposed to the solar radiation are always significantly hotter with the record being 70.7 degrees C measured by Landsat in the Lut desert in Iran.

    The time of the “faint young Sun” paradox probably coincided with a time when the continents of Earth were combined into a super continent which occupied significant areas of the tropics – unlike today where significant land mass is located north of the tropics. Geology suggests this is the case.

    The oceans contain enormous amounts of energy without necessarily approaching land mass temperatures and they only relinquish this energy slowly.

    It takes months for the Arctic to melt and it takes months to re-freeze. However water in the tropics never has this period of time to radiate energy away before the Sun rises again.

    Further water is almost unique in the way in which it cools from ~4 degrees C to freezing.

    As everyone knows water freezes from the top down because its density decreases below 4 degrees C rather than increasing as almost everything else does and the ice floats.

    I certainly do not believe in the fantasy of the “greenhouse effect” but I really laugh out loud at the notion that the Earth was ever a snowball !

    PS I am not criticising the person who posted about the snowball earth documentary – I also saw it and it must be true – it was on TV after all and they’d never try to mislead us would they ?

  15. Should have included this

    This is a graph of satellite observations of the Earth’s “temperature” from space.

    It demonstrates 2 significant points:-

    1. You can clearly see a period of lower radiation emitted to space following major volcanic eruptions – El Chicon and Pinatubo – caused by a decrease in incident solar radiation; and,

    2. Proof that the basic claim for greenhouse gas global warming is nonsense.

    NASA claims – “Greenhouse gases absorb some of the energy and trap it in the lower atmosphere. Less heat radiates into space, and Earth is warmer.”

    But their own data and graph explicitly shows this is NOT true !!

    The period from 1979 to 2005 covered by this data was supposedly the period of accelerating global warming due to greenhouse gas effects “trapping” heat” in the atmosphere – they explicitly say this – “Less heat radiates into space, and Earth is warmer.”

    But Earth radiated far more to space NOT less !!!!

    And the anomaly they graph is more than the claimed 3.7 W/sqm for doubling of CO2 concentrations – it is over 5 and up to almost 10 over the period measured.

    REMEMBER – we are a long way from doubling the CO2 concentration yet – we have about another 160 ppm to go yet !!!

    This cannot POSSIBLY be due to “Less heat radiates into space, and Earth is warmer.”

    The only explanation is an external forcing which I call the Sun !

    Any other spin on the reason is nothing more than JUNK SCIENCE !

    • I believe that there several peer accepted scientific papers which suggest the hypothesis that the Sun since its formation, has (over 4.5 billion years) increased its power output by 30%.
      This would affect the position of the Goldilocks zone of liquid water being able to exist on planet. Such a 30 % reduction in power would put the earth’s orbit outside the suns Hydrological zone at that time, Mars well out of it, and Venus well in side the zone. Extinction level events such as those during the heavy bombardment may well induce a snow ball earth effect while the sun is obscured by the rubbish in the atmosphere, once it cleared the Sun was able to provide the necessary heat to reduce and remove the ice, until landmasses arrive close to both poles, as now, and retain their ice cover.

  16. I’m already seeing increases in overall food prices here this year. Even at Hardees, for example, the cost of biscuit and gravy went up twice now in the last 2 months alone. Locally here was $2.70 for years with coffee – now suddenly $2.92 and it looks like it’ll go higher.

  17. The volcanic eruptions must be strong enough to eject the SO2 into the Stratosphere to have a significant effect on short term climate. There UV radiation and water vapor convert the SO2 into Sulfuric Acid particles that are highly reflective. The last major event that caused a significant change in the optical properties of the stratosphere was Mt Redoubt in 2010. The current uptick in volcanic activity do not appear to be making it into the Stratosphere. In fact high latitude volcanoes that eject primarily ash into the troposphere can actually cause warming.

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