Will the solar minimum cause a new ice age? asks Italian website

Will the solar minimum cause a new ice age? asks Italian website

“The Italian website il meteo today has an article about low solar activity and its consequences,” says Italian geologist Dr Mirco Poletto. “Despite the fact that writers on that website believe in global warming, they are now considering a cold theory.”

“I think now cooling evidences are so strong they can’t be ignored any longer.”

Excerpts from the il meteo article, written by meteorologist Marco Castelli, 14 June 2018:

Will the solar minimum cause a new ice age?

Our star is at the minimum of activity, and the consequences could be glacial.

Our beloved Sun has reached its deepest solar minimum; we are talking about the sunspot count. The fewer sunspots, the less heat emanates the Sun, and the more spots, the stronger the energy is.

For months now few or no spots have been seen.

Most climatologists believe that the last event of this kind, which took place between 1645 and 1715, caused the “little ice age” in which the global average temperature of the Earth dropped by 1.3 ° C, thus causing massive waves of frost on many European countries for many years.

With these premises it is self-evident to think that the Earth’s climate is gradually cooling down , probably leading us to another small ice age …

So be careful, if the sun does not wake up, Winter could be closer than you think …

https://www.ilmeteo.it/notizie/meteo-clima-il-sole-si-sta-spegnendoquali-le-conseguenze

Thanks to Dr Mirco Poletto for this link


34 thoughts on “Will the solar minimum cause a new ice age? asks Italian website

  1. There is no global warming due to AGW and the minor recent global warming that did take place is ending this year, year 2018.

    Thus far year 2018 is cooperating with overall sea surface temperatures now less then +.15c above 1981-2010 means in contrast to +.35c during the past summer.

    In addition according to satellite data the global temperatures this year are lower then a year ago through today.

    One key metric that has to be watched is the North Atlantic which is now in solid negative territory around -.50c from 1981-2010 means.

    Greenland Ice very healthy.

    As the sun continues in a prolonged solar minimum state this is going to equate to lower overall sea surface temperatures and a slightly higher albedo which in turn will equate to a colder climate.

    The weakening geo magnetic field will compound this .

    I have been saying this for years and this year 2018 , is the first year that my two solar conditions have been met in order to have the sun result in a more significant climatic impact. Those being 10+ years of sub solar activity in general(which started in year 2005) and within this sub solar activity in general a period of time of very low average value solar parameters(which started in year 2018) meaning solar reading equal to or lower in magnitude that occurs during typical solar minimums with the duration of time of these very low solar values longer then what is typical.

    It is happening this year and this is the first time since the ending of the Dalton Minimum, that my two solar conditions are occurring.

    In the meantime all the basic premises AGW theory is based on have failed to materialize while the global climate is not even close to being unique.

    The theory should have been trashed 20 years ago but has survived due to political agendas.

    • Remember robert mentions underwater volcanic activity in his book that makes the oceans warmer while overhead volcanic activity makes the earths atmosphere much cold. Both a dangerous combination. Tons of moisture in the skies from underwater Volcanoes meeting with the colder atmosphere. Giant rain and snow storms. Plus their were more frequent el ninos during the little ice age caused by underwater volcanic activity

  2. Every once and a while, I feel need to bring this up.
    Hope you don’t mind, but it’s broken record time again.

    We are still in the ” Last Ice Age “,
    There are still massive glaciers in both hemispheres that have been there for the last 120,000 years.

    Circa 30,000 years ago a warming trend happen.
    Ditto 12,000 years ago, a further warming.

    Are we slowly coming out of the current Ice Age ?
    Or are we merely in a warming period before descending headlong back into the depths of the Ice Age ?

    No one knows and there is no explanatory theory.
    And there is NO stupid-A** Consensus either !

    • If the pattern of glaciation indicated by ice and sediment cores carries forward then we should expect a major glaciation anytime. Based on accepted research the transition is 3 to 20 years.
      We need to be able to recognize the transition.
      If we can’t we could easily lose much of what humanity has achieved since we came out of the stone age. We run the risk of extinction or something close to it.

  3. Quote:
    Our beloved Sun has reached its deepest solar minimum; we are talking about the sunspot count. The fewer sunspots, the less heat emanates the Sun, and the more spots, the stronger the energy is.
    TSI according to current solar scientists peer reviewed papers maintains that it varies by 1% over the whole of the solar cycle, this includes heat or IR at the red end of the spectrum.
    However, UV and EUV at the Blue end of the spectrum vary by as much as 16% over the same cycle length.
    The reason for this discrepancy is the Sun is a UV variable star and one of the major sources of UV emission is the phage area, the white area around every Sun Spot. What is also noticed that during GSM affected solar cycles such as this one is the ratio of fragment spots to full WOLF sized increases significantly in numbers but the phage area around the spot is massively reduced and the spot last a fraction of the time a full sized one does, which is why NASA is issuing spot counts which bare no relationship to other Grand Solar Minimum spot counts because the fragment spot could not be seen with the optical equipment in use during Dalton 1790 to 1825 or Maunder for that matter.
    UV and EUV is absorbed by our atmosphere, in doing so, control the shape and direction of the world’s jet streams. During Solar MAX with high EUV levels Jet Streams are lateral and contain heat within the tropical zone, during Low levels of EUV the world Jet stream become meridional and release that trapped heat to the poles where it is radiated to space, it also pushes less cold sea water under some of the sea ice melting some of it as it done over the last 10 years.

    A GSM is a short term cooling event, it isnt the start of a major glaciation event, and in any event we are already in an Ice age of some 2.5 million years in length, this is just a warm intermission before the next act starts.

    • “this is just a warm intermission before the next act starts.”

      The next act or major glaciation is what concerns us. We need to know what to look for to detect its onset so that something of humanity and its achievements can be preserved. That includes personal survival. We all die eventually but getting killed by being left in the dark and being misinformed or uninformed is ridiculous to say the least.

  4. Another alarmist view on the impending doom. There are no indications of a Maunder Minimum repeat this time around.
    The most likely outcome is SC25 similar to SC24 and then a recovery. Some cooling or continuation of the pause, but we will survive.

    • It will be more then some cooling.

      Already overall oceanic temperatures are now less then +.10c deviation from 1981-2010 means down from around +.35c a year ago.

      The trend is still down but even if it should hold at these levels that would be sufficient to end the recent warming.

      As far as what the sun is going to do time will tell, but it is safe to say since post 2005 it has been in an inactive state and that will not be changing anytime soon.

      Then the denial of the role of the geo magnetic field which modifies all solar activity. Sometimes in concert ,sometimes in opposition.

      Year 2018 is the transition year and it will be colder going forward but the question is how much.

    • Hi Geoff,

      Given that a Gleissberg period 1870 to 1940 followed Dalton by around 50 years, 200 year GSM forcast chart gives an indication of a slightly warmer Gleisberg period on simlar time scales, any thoughts?

      • Hi JimBob,

        I am glad you responded as I wanted to correct your understanding of AMP theory. GSM do not occur during the trefoil period (when U/N are opposite) but we do see somewhat lower cycles because solar angular momentum is low because U/N are cancelling one another out.
        GSM occur when U/N are together and J/S are in a particular alignment that differs every time over 4627 years. This is the AMP event.
        http://www.landscheidt.info/images/type_a_b.png
        If the theory is correct we should see Gleissberg type lows every 172 years that pretty much mirror each other.
        http://www.landscheidt.info/images/powerwave3.png

        LIA type clusters are rare across the Holocene and are generally spaced at 2100 – 2500 year intervals (Hallstatt or Bray cycle), Javier has done some work in this area looking at patterns etc and he also agrees it will be over a 1000 years before we will see another LIA type cluster.

        So yes another Gleissberg type low is approaching around 2070 but the current grand minimum does not look to be deep or prolonged. I know there are other papers out there suggesting a repeat of a Maunder Minimum but I don’t believe these papers have solid data behind them…I am happy to discuss those papers if anyone is interested.

  5. there was some chat on spaceweather n WUWT that a small reversed polarity sth hem sunspot had been logged a few weeks ago
    and some said that signalled the start of cycle 25.
    personally seeing how few sunpots were getting this yr i reckon it might be a while deciding to start properly
    in which case we are likely to have ongoing cold n shake n quakes.
    i wouldnt bet on 25 being a high/rising cycle either.
    Im planning for ongoing cold winters n mild summers

    • Probably cool summers and if that is the case the implications for agriculture and energy consumption should be obvious.

  6. http://allafrica.com/stories/201806140546.html
    It looks like the glacier is growing….
    MOUNT Kilimanjaro is now covered by snow in an unusually long stint which analysts associate with the long rains from January to May this year and in turn boosts tourism in the country.

    Kilimanjaro National Park Chief Park Warden, Ms Bertita Loibooki told the ‘Daily News’ yesterday that the observed snow that accumulated on the mountain’s highest peak, plays an important role in protection of glacier from sublimation.

  7. I’ve been thinking long the same lines for a little while now. The last major glaciation had a last pulse of glaciation called the Younger Dryas before things warmed up more or less for the duration of the Holocene. One might suspect that an initial cold period lasting centuries could be a precursor for the big decline into the deep freeze for 90 to 105 thousand years. Does the ice cores support such an idea?

    • The Youger Dryas are tied to fresh water sea inundation x3 into the atlantic once the NA Ice dams failed these events shut down the North Atlantic over turning current causing a NH reglaciation period of a few hundred years. The 8500 BP event is different matter.

  8. Interesting quote –

    “Most climatologists believe that the last event of this kind, which took place between 1645 and 1715, caused the “little ice age” in which the global average temperature of the Earth dropped by 1.3 ° C, thus causing massive waves of frost on many European countries for many years.”

    So “most climatologists apparently accept that the global temperature dropped 1.3c prior to industrialization, but the gain in 1.(?)c since is all man made. Makes for fascinating logic, don’t you think? Nature can depress the temperature, but only man can raise it.

  9. I’m with JayPee and JimBob above. The article doesn’t warrant the picture/graphic. I think the “March of the Glaciers” is linked with esotasy. Once more land area penetrates the freezing level and snow stays all year round no matter if the Sun is spotty or not, then it’s time to worry and talk about the next 90,000 years in the freezer. Until then any cold will be temporary albeit for 50 or so years.

  10. I also have pointed out slow gradual climate change is old school. The climate when it changes to another regime does it abruptly in decades at most if not years.

    The climate only changes gradually when it is in the same climate regime which it has been since the Dalton Solar Minimum ended, and can fluctuate plus /minus 1c under this scenario.

    A climate regime change is another ball game and I think we are transitioning to this if my theory is correct on what governs the climate.

    The sun modified by the geo magnetic field.

    Most of the transitions in the past happen near the top of the previous climatic regime which is opposite to what the new regime will be, when one looks back at climatic history.

    Overall oceanic surface temperatures continue to fall.

  11. Anyone who believes there is any way known to man that scientists can measure air, ocean, global mean, global anomaly or any other temperature for the Earth with accuracy of 1/10th of a degree Celsius has been inhaling some sort of hallucinogen.

    When they start quoting 1/100 th of a degree they should be candidates for admission to those institutions designed to protect society from deluded people or to protect them from themselves.

    Seriously, your doctor couldn’t record your temperature to better than about half a degree.

    What chance is there that any global dataset for temperature is anything other than fake when they claim such accuracy ?

    My opinion – NONE !

    • The entire AGW bovine excreta has been a green socialist propaganda exercise in hate politics against any Carbon based fuels, as well as any Nuclear based investment, funded by the last gasp of the Soviet Empire during period, from CND and Ban the Bomb in the sixties to when the empire finally collapsed.
      The other problem is Academic freedom particularly within Climate departments to teach utter rubbish, and get paid by the state to do so.
      We should thank our lucky star and the four gas giants for generating such an inconvenient Grand Solar Minimum cooling period in the nick of time to prevent the climate 1984 from becoming reality.

  12. According to the MSM the GSM means nothing. As long as man is on earth it will keep heating up.

    To everyone who thinks the MSM is useless / propaganda, prepare yourself for colder times.

  13. Periods of Global Cooling also affect the Southern Hemisphere..

    UnderWater Volcanos would of course locally raise water temperatures.. But at the same time they’re releasing e.g., SO2 gases, etc, which would rise up and exit into the Atmosphere, and which in turn would reduce solar irradiance.. thus contributing to overall cooling – as volcanic activity is known to do.

    CO2 has been oft-said to lag behind / follow Global Temps by upwards of 800 years. If that be so, then right now any increases of CO2 should be contributed to the significant rise of global temps which began around the year 1200..

    We’re already beginning to hear of certain crop failures.. … Were we to experience but a few years of e.g.,”no summer”, that event alone would be devastating..

    +

  14. Salvatore, you said the warming had ended this year. But what about ‘the pause’. Didn’t the warming stop over 15+ years ago? And didn’t the IPCC admit it, but then changed its mind, as one would expect?

    • Yes , but this time instead of a pause I think we get an actual drop which is what is needed to put AGW to rest.

      We will know from now going forward.

      Overall oceanic temperatures over the past year in a nice down trend.

      Can not have warming with out the oceans cooperating.

      • I think Geoff point is we complain about the warmest in there scare story’s of so called man made global warming but in many ways we are doing the same thing on our side as well but on the cold side of the argurement.I think In realty he gets it that Robert is selling his book which is well done and agrees with alot of things with it but I think he just questioning reather or not we are over selling it as doing the same things we get on the agw bunch about makes our side look just as bad so his message is we need to take a step back and look at this more clearly.there is no doubt there will be another glacier cycle on this earth planet sooner or lateer but saying reather it happens in 50 years 200 years or a 1000 years is differcult to truely say.like one of the posters above said we really need to know what to look for in these climate cycles so we can be better prepared for it.also Robert has built quite a following on this site and blog of his and from his great book and Geoff likey does not want to see Robert lose fans from doom story’s from links like this because if in 20 years we only saw a slight cooling trend when it was being advertise of an little ice age or worse cooling then some may lose interest just because some would see the selling just like the global warming group sell as hype.so it’s just as important that we are not losing the fans base people that are following this great work.we need to continue to research and study what to look out for.

  15. Going with what is, is safe and easy to do.

    One has to have some conviction to stray.

    I say the global warming ends this year, a cooling trend starts how far it goes I do not know but global warming is over.

    That is what my studies show and I go where my studies lead.

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